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　　提要：虽然日本经济出现复苏，但缺乏自主性因素推动，而且仍面临失业率高企等问题。有利动向包括：出口和工业生产回暖，私人消费继续呈回升势头。不利动向包括：企业利润锐减，商业投资继续下滑，日趋恶化的就业市场形势极其严峻。就短期前景而言，预计海外国家经济的复苏将会提振日本经济。但需要对来自就业形势进一步恶化、全球金融危机造成海外国家经济放缓以及金融和资本市场波动的风险予以密切关注。

 

　　（外脑精华·北京）日本经济现状评估

 

　　虽然日本经济出现复苏，但缺乏自主性因素推动，而且仍处在面临失业率高企等问题的困境。出口正在复苏，尤其是对亚洲出口。工业生产回暖。企业利润锐减，但降速放缓。商业投资呈下滑趋势。虽然企业商业景气判断指数依然不容乐观，但总体上继续呈回升势头。不过，中小型企业商业景气判断指数回升速度缓慢。私人消费继续呈复苏态势。

 

　　就短期前景而言，虽然就业形势继续呈恶化趋势，但预计海外国家经济的复苏将会提振日本经济。另一方面，需对来自就业形势进一步恶化、全球金融危机造成海外国家经济放缓以及金融和资本市场波动的风险予以密切关注。

 

　　政策立场

 

　　日本政府正在实行政策管理来确保经济实现增长，将通过促进私人消费政策、对家庭部门和制造业的扶持政策和新兴产业就业政策来刺激内需作为重点工作。

 

　　日本政府预计日本央行将同政府密切合作，实行恰当和灵活的财政政策来促使日本经济重新走向可持续发展之路以及确保物价稳定。

 

　　详细阐述

 

　　1.消费及投资需求趋势

 

　　随着一揽子经济刺激政策效应显现，近期私人消费继续呈反弹态势。消费者信心指数虽然仍处低位，但已出现回升。就业人员实际收入水平呈下降趋势。综合需求方（家庭收入和支出调查等数据）和供应方（工业企业出口指数等数据）统计数据的综合消费指数在8月份环比上涨。就短期前景而言，预计一揽子经济刺激政策的效应将会促使私人消费增长，同时消费者信心呈回升势头。不过，同时需对恶化的就业和收入状况以及H1N1流感疫情影响予以密切关注。

 

　　商业投资下滑。反映需求方统计数据的《细分行业企业季度财务报表统计数据》报告显示，2009年1-3月当季和2009年4-6月当季商业投资双双下滑。日本央行商业景气短观调查结果显示，预计2009财年日本大型制造企业和大型非制造企业的计划商业投资将出现连续第2年下滑。就短期前景而言，在企业利润的锐减预计将造成计划商业投资大幅下滑和以及全球经济下行风险等因素显示日本经济前景高度不确定的情况下，令人担忧是商业投资恐会继续下滑。

 

　　房屋营建小幅下滑。自有房屋营建基本触底。销售房屋和租赁房屋营建下滑。就短期前景而言，虽然预期政策刺激举措的效应将会显现，但鉴于就业形势恶化以及收入水平下降，预计这种下滑颓势仍将持续。

 

　　公共投资保持稳步增长。2009年4--6月当季的公共工程合同金额同比增长，2009年8月公共工程合同金额和合同订单均实现同比增长。就短期前景而言，来自预算和项目审查的影响将具有决定性。

 

　　出口呈增长态势，主要是对亚洲出口。按区域划分，对亚洲出口激增。对美国和欧盟出口呈反弹趋势。就短期前景而言，考虑到全球去库存化结束以及经济复苏态势从亚洲扩大至其他地区等因素，预计出口在未来一段时间将继续保持增长。

 

　　进口出现回升。按区域划分，从亚洲进口商品总额呈增长态势。从美国和欧盟进口的商品总额接近底部。

 

　　在国际收支状况方面，贸易盈余出现增长，同时出口总额增长，而进口总额增速较缓。服务业贸易赤字维持不变，从而使得贸易和服务收支盈余出现增长。

 

　　房屋营建活动萎缩。自有房屋营建基本触底。销售房屋和租赁房屋营建大幅萎缩。就短期前景而言，虽然预期政策刺激举措的效应将会显现，但就业形势恶化以及收入水平下降，预计这种下滑颓势仍将持续。

 

　　公共投资保持稳步增长。2009年4--6月当季的公共工程合同金额同比增长。就短期前景而言，预计相关预算案的实施将会使公共投资保持强劲增长势头。

 

　　出口呈增长态势。按区域划分，对亚洲出口增长。对美国和欧盟出口回暖。就短期前景而言，鉴于全球去库存化结束以及亚洲经济全面复苏，预计出口在未来一段时间将继续保持增长。

 

　　进口出现回升。按区域划分，从亚洲进口商品总额呈增长态势。从美国进口商品总额小幅回落，从欧盟进口商品总额接近底部。

 

　　在国际收支状况方面，在贸易收支从逆差转为贸易盈余后，由于出口总额小幅增长，而进口总额维持不变，贸易盈余出现增长。服务业贸易赤字维持不变，从而使得贸易和服务收支转为盈余。

 

　　2.企业活动及就业趋势

 

　　工业生产活动正在回暖。就短期前景而言，鉴于出口回暖，预计工业产出在未来一段时间将继续保持增长。同时，生产预测指数显示，9月和10月工业产值均将出现增长。

 

　　《分行业企业季度财务报表统计数据》报告显示，由于企业销售收入下降，2009年4-6月当季企业利润同比下53％，从而使得企业利润连续第8个季度出现下滑。行业细分数据显示，制造业企业利润同比下滑了89.2％，而非制造业企业利润同比下滑26.4％。日本央行短观调查结果显示，预计2009财年企业销售收入将连续第2年出现下降，预计2009财年企业当期利润将连续第3年出现下滑。日本央行短观调查结果显示，大型制造企业和大型非制造企业商业景气判断指数回升。小型制造企业商业景气判断指数7个季度以来首次出现上涨，而小型非制造企业商业景气判断指数11个季度以来首次出现上涨。不过，小型企业破产企业商业景气判断指数回升速度慢于大型企业景气判断指数的回升速度。破产企业数量基本持稳。

 

　　趋于恶化的就业形势极其严峻。总体失业率在8月份环比下降0.5％至5.7％，但仍徘徊在高点。新供就业岗位数量呈下滑趋势。招聘岗位数量/求职人数有效比持平于历史低点。近期就业人数呈回升势头。由于生产活动复苏，制造业加班时间增加。在薪资方面，受薪者合约现金收入出现增长。由于包括奖金在内的特殊现金收入锐减，受薪者现金收入总额大幅下降。

 

　　3.物价及金融市场走势

 

　　日本国内企业物价指数持稳。“不含生鲜食品、原油产品及其他特定商品”的核心消费物价指数小幅回落。就短期前景而言，预计核心消费物价指数在未来一段时间仍将呈缓慢回落趋势。股市方面，日经平均指数在从10300点涨至10500点后，回落至9600点，然后反弹至10000点。日元兑美元汇率从92：1升至88：1后，回升至89：1。

 

　　英文原文：Monthly Economic Report

Executive Summary

（Assessment of the current state of the Japanese economy）

Although the economy has been picking up, it is short of autonomous factors and remains in a difficult situation such as a high unemployment rate.

* Exports are increasing, mainly to Asia. Industrial production is picking up.

* Corporate profits are decreasing substantially, but the downward pace has become moderate. Business investment is decreasing.

* Although firms\' judgment on current business conditions remains in a difficult situation, it continues to show movements of picking up as a whole. However, the pace of pickup for small and medium-sized enterprises is slow.

* The employment situation, remaining on the worsening trend, is extremely severe.

* Private consumption continues to show movements of picking up.

As for short-term prospects, although the employment situation remains on the worsening trend, the economy is expected to pick up reflecting improvement in overseas economies. On the other hand, attention should be given to the risks that the economy is depressed by a further worsening of the employment situation, concerns over slowdown in overseas economies and the influence of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets.

（Policy stance）

The government implements policy management to realize economic growth that regards domestic demand as important by expanding individual consumption by support of households and by producing industry and employment in a new field. Paying attention about current severe employment situation, the government considers measures based on it.

The government expects the Bank of Japan to conduct appropriate and flexible monetary policy under close contact with the government to facilitate the return of the Japanese economy to a sustainable growth path with price stability.

Detailed explanations

1. Demand trends such as consumption and investment

Private consumption continues to show movements of picking up.

Private consumption continues to show movements of picking up due to the effects of the policy packages. As for consumer confidence, a pickup has been seen, though remaining at low levels. Real income of employees is on a declining trend. The Synthetic Consumption Index which synthesizes demand-side statistics （Family Income and Expenditure Survey, etc.） and supply-side statistics （Indices of Industrial Producer\'s Shipment, etc.） increased in August in comparison to July.

As for short-term prospects, it is expected that private consumption is supported by the effects of the policy packages while a pickup has been seen in consumer confidence. However, we should closely monitor severe employment and income situations and the effects of the epidemic of Influenza A （H1N1）.

Business investment is decreasing.

Business investment is decreasing. The Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, which is a demand-side statistic, shows that business investment decreased both in the January-March quarter of 2009 and the April-June quarter of 2009.

According to the Bank of Japan short-term business sentiment survey （tankan）, planned business investment in fiscal 2009 is expected to decrease for the second consecutive year for both large manufacturers and large non-manufacturers.

As for short-term prospects, there is concern over continuing decrease as planned business investment is expected to decrease substantially while corporate profits decrease substantially and uncertainty about the economic outlook, shown by factors such as downside risk of the global economy, is high.

Housing construction is decreasing moderately.

Housing construction is decreasing moderately. Construction of owned houses is nearing the bottom. Construction of houses for sale and houses for rent is decreasing.

As for short-term prospects, weak movements are likely to continue for the time being due to severe employment and income situations while the economic policy packages are expected to be effective.

Public investment has shown steady performance.

Public investment has shown steady performance.

The amount of contracted public works and public works orders received in August 2009 were higher than in 2008.

As for short-term prospects, an impact coming from the review of budget and projects should be determined.

Exports are increasing, mainly to Asia. Imports are picking up. The surplus in the trade and services balance has been increasing.

Exports are increasing, mainly to Asia. By region, exports to Asia are substantially increasing. Both exports to the U.S. and the EU are showing movements of picking up. As for short-term prospects, it is expected that exports are continuously showing an upward trend for the time being due to worldwide inventory adjustment progresses and spread of economic recovery from Asia, etc.

Imports are picking up. By region, imports from Asia are increasing. Both imports from the U.S. and the EU are nearing the bottom.

As for the international balance of payments, the surplus in the trade account has been increasing while export values have increased and import values have increased moderately. The deficit in the services account has been flat, thus leading the surplus of the trade and services balance to increase.

2.Corporate activities and employment

Industrial production is picking up.

Industrial production is picking up.

As for short-term prospects, production is expected to continue to pick up for the time being, reflecting upward trend of exports. Also, the Survey of Production Forecast expects an increase both in September and October.

Corporate profits are decreasing substantially, but the downward pace has become moderate. Although Firms\' judgment on current business conditions remains in a difficult situation, it continues to show movements of picking up as a whole. However, the pace of pickup for small enterprises is slow. The number of bankrupt companies has been almost flat.

According to the Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, corporate profits during the April-June quarter of 2009 decreased by 53.0% in comparison with the previous year, thus posting a decline for the eighth consecutive quarter, due to the fact that the amount of sales decreased. By type of industry, profits of the manufacturing industry decreased by 89.2% and those of the non-manufacturing industry decreased by 26.4%. According to the BOJ Tankan, fiscal 2009 sales are expected to post a decrease for the second consecutive year, and fiscal 2009 current profits are expected to post a decrease for the third consecutive year.

The BOJ Tankan shows firms\' judgment on current business conditions. Both large manufacturers\' and large non-manufacturers\' judgments on current business conditions improved for the second consecutive quarter. Small manufacturers\' and small non-manufacturers\' judgments on current business conditions improved for the first time in seven quarters and 11 quarters respectively. However, the pace of improvement for small enterprises is slow compared to large enterprises.

The number of bankrupt companies has been almost flat.

The employment situation, on the worsening trend, is extremely severe.

The employment situation, on the worsening trend, is extremely severe. The total unemployment rate has hovered at a high 5.5% in August, decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

The number of new job offers has been on a decreasing trend. The effective ratio of job offers to applicants has been flat, at an all-time low. The number of employees has been showing movements of picking up recently. Overtime hours worked in the manufacturing industry have increased, reflecting pickup of the production.

As for the movement of wages, contractual cash earnings are showing movements of picking up. The total amount of cash earnings have been decreasing substantially as special cash earnings including bonuses decreased substantially.

3.Prices and the financial market

Domestic corporate goods prices have been flat. Consumer prices have declined moderately.

Domestic corporate goods prices have been flat.

Consumer prices, in terms of "general, excluding fresh food, petroleum products and other specific components" （referred to as "core core"）, have declined moderately. As for short-term prospects, consumer prices （core core） are expected to remain on a moderate downward trend.#p#分页标题#e#

As for stock prices, after rising from the 10,300 yen level to the 10,500 yen level, the Nikkei Stock Average decreased to the 9,600 yen level and thereafter it is rising to the 10,000 yen level. The yen against the U.S. dollar moved in the direction of appreciation from the 92 yen level to the 88 yen level, and thereafter it is moving around the 89 yen level.

 

责任编辑：王焕